Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years.

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.

• lukeprog estimated 80% on 2012-09-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2012-09-04
• ​ estimated 75% on 2014-02-01
• Andrew MacFie estimated 90% on 2015-06-20
• Andrew MacFie estimated 99% on 2016-05-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 71% and said “20k gap at this point” on 2016-10-10
• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 99% on 2017-03-19
• Baeboo estimated 100% on 2017-08-08
• Pablo estimated 100% on 2017-08-15
• lukeprog   judged this prediction right on 2017-09-04.