Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2b real, conditional on exactly one real

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 15% on 2015-04-02
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-02.