Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3b real, conditional on exactly one real

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 27% on 2015-04-02
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction right on 2015-04-02.