In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged unknown by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-25.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 50% on 2012-09-18
  • RandomThinker estimated 20% and said “I’m with Einsteinon 2012-09-18
  • jakewalker estimated 3% and said “This would flip physics on its head big time. Like, BIG time.on 2012-09-19
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 2% on 2012-09-19
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% and said “Getting an article published doesn’t make the results correct.on 2012-09-19
  • Jach estimated 0% on 2012-09-19
  • NathanMcKnight said “@Jayson: The prediction doesn’t require correctness, just that the claim will be made, and will pass peer review. on 2012-09-19
  • NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “In the next ten years, scientists will publish* the results of an experiment that successfully moved matter faster than the speed of light. *in a refereed journal” on 2012-09-19
  • NathanMcKnight said “Rewrote prediction to make it more clear what I mean. on 2012-09-19
  • scav estimated 0% and said “0% (rounded down) Maybe it could be a misprint (omitted “not” in abstract) or a joke intended for 1st April but published on the wrong day. It won’t actually be achieved.on 2012-09-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-09-19
  • beo_shaffer estimated 12% on 2012-09-20
  • RobertLumley estimated 1% on 2012-09-22
  • RobertLumley estimated 1% and said “Assuming a paper published and later retracted doesn’t count here. I’d probably be at 5% if it did.on 2012-09-22
  • NathanMcKnight said “The prediction is just about passing peer review; it says nothing about staying power, so yes, retracted papers count, as long as they were published.on 2012-09-22
  • sharanga estimated 0% and said “I don’t see the theory of relativity getting becoming obsolete within next ten years.on 2012-09-25
  • sharanga   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-25.
  • Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-09-25.
  • learnmethis estimated 10% and said “However, if published I also predict a high (>90%) chance the paper will either be retracted or prove inconclusive. I would increase my estimate of the paper and decrease my estimate of the paper being retracted if it were information instead.on 2012-09-26
  • kilobug estimated 15% and said “But with 95% chance it appears to be wrong.on 2012-10-02
  • ethaneshaw said “<strong><a href="http://www.louboutinshoes.cn/">christian louboutin</a></strong> | <strong>on 2015-11-29
  • themusicgod1 estimated 2% on 2016-07-30

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