In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-09-21
• RandomThinker said “how many is several? set an over-under” on 2012-09-21
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “In the first two years after the 2012 election, several prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties.” on 2012-09-21
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-09-21
• JoshuaZ said “How do we define prominent? Depending on how prominent we are talking about (governors, senators and members of the house) or do we mean state level reps? Do pundits count? ” on 2012-09-21
• NathanMcKnight said “I’d count holders of national office, elder statesmen, national strategists, national party officials, and governors. State reps and pundits don’t count. ” on 2012-09-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2012-09-21
• William-Quixote estimated 20% on 2012-09-23
• JoshuaZ said “Does anyone have a list of major defections to look at to judge this one? ” on 2016-01-10
• NathanMcKnight said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_switching_in_the_United_States#2010s_2 ” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight said “No national office holders. Gotta mark this false. For reference, I’ll post the lower level office holders who switched parties. ” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight said “2012 – Ron Erhardt, Minnesota State Representative2012 – Peter Koo, New York City Councilman[73]2013 – Jean Schodorf, Kansas State Senator2013 – Tom O’Halleran, former Arizona State Senator” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-13.
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-06-13.
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-13.
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-06-13.
• NathanMcKnight said “Can’t seem to comment.” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight said “Ah… I was over the character limit. Continuing… 2013 – Brad Ashford, Nebraska State Senator, later served as U.S. Representative from Nebraska (2015–present)2013 – John Bohlinger, former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (2005–2013)” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight said “2013 – Lawrence E. Meyers, Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Judge.2014 – Aaron Johanson, Hawaii State Representative” on 2016-06-13
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-13.