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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group.

Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.

  • EliTyre estimated 97% on 2015-04-04
  • EliTyre changed the deadline from “on 2015-04-05” on 2015-04-04
  • RoryS estimated 80% and said “High confidence from initial predictor, and 46 people say they went to HPMOR party in Chicago 3 weeks ago. The fact it’s only 80% mainly based on unknown unknowns. ” on 2015-04-05
  • EliTyre   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-06.
  • EliTyre   judged this prediction right on 2015-04-06.