By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03

• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-04-06
• JoshuaZ said “150 dollar bet with bligh8, not to be active if we are not both alive at that time. Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/31fzcb/california_drought_tests_history_of_endless_growth/cq2aj1y” on 2015-04-06
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2035-01-01” and changed their prediction from “By January 1, 2035, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015.” on 2015-04-07
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2035-01-01” on 2015-04-07
• JoshuaZ said “Date corrected.” on 2015-04-07
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2040-01-02” on 2015-04-07
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2045-01-02” and changed their prediction from “By January 1, 2040, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015.” on 2015-04-07
• EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-04-07
• jesselevine estimated 1% on 2015-04-09
• btrettel estimated 5% on 2015-07-26
• Leo estimated 10% on 2021-12-04