At least 25% of MIT's numbers in the Dropbox Space Race (https://www.dropbox.com/spacerace) are from some kind of cheating (a script, virtual machines, etc.).

Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-12-11; judged unknown by Qiaochu on 2012-10-22.

• Qiaochu estimated 80% on 2012-10-17
• Qiaochu changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-10” and changed their prediction from “At least 25% of MIT's numbers in the Dropbox Space Race (https://www.dropbox.com/spacerace) are from a script.” on 2012-10-17
• Qiaochu estimated 50% and said “I recognize that there’s a problem with verifiability here, but I’m hoping that if I’m right someone will take credit for it. If nobody does, then the prediction should be judged as false. ” on 2012-10-17
• Qiaochu estimated 90% and said “Updating. MIT’s numbers have gotten bigger. ” on 2012-10-21
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-22.
• Qiaochu said “http://blog.burtonthird.com/?p=81” on 2012-10-22
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-10-22.
• Qiaochu withdrew the prediction on 2012-10-22
• Qiaochu said “I should have specified whether “numbers” meant “numbers at the time of the prediction,” “numbers at some point between now and the end of the race,” or “numbers at the end of the race.” ” on 2012-10-22