The SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event.

Created by jacobian on 2012-10-21; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by jacobian on 2014-01-01.

• jacobian estimated 75% on 2012-10-21
• modulus estimated 40% on 2012-10-21
• jacobian changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-10-21
• jacobian   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.