Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years.

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2027-12-31

• Aticper estimated 70% on 2012-10-24
• Aticper on 2012-10-24
• Aticper changed their prediction from “Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years of the b” on 2012-10-24
• RandomThinker said “Holding off… this one is destined to be rephrased. ” on 2012-10-24
• RobertLumley said “That is… really really specific for 70%.” on 2012-10-30
• Aticper said “The physics of transistors are relatively well understood. 2024 is pretty optimistic according to guiding stars in the industry. ” on 2012-11-14
• Aticper said “ I also assign a very low probability to the idea that we’ll run into the limits of silicon and just go ‘whoops, well, computers, that was fun, let’s go bang rocks together, that sounds good.’” on 2012-11-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 38% and said “Sort of not implausible but has elements of conjunctionitis. ” on 2012-11-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-10-10