A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31

• Aticper estimated 65% on 2012-10-24
• RandomThinker estimated 20% and said “Compound predictions are hard to hit” on 2012-10-24
• JoshuaZ said “What counts as an attempt for purposes of this prediction? ” on 2012-10-24
• Aticper changed their prediction from “A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be attempted within 15 years (2027), and implemented successfully within 20 (2032).” on 2012-10-24
• Aticper said “Adjusted it to eliminate the compound. ” on 2012-10-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2012-10-25
• museveni estimated 55% on 2012-10-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 96% on 2016-10-10