S sighted by me or R crossing the threshold of or loitering outside of M given R puts 20%

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-16.

• KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 22% on 2015-04-16
• KnaveOfAllTrades   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-16.