In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-10-29
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2012-10-29” and changed their prediction from “In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans.” on 2012-10-29
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-10-29
• RandomThinker said “Assuming you mean Libertarian with capital L, ie the political party.” on 2012-10-29
• NathanMcKnight said “Yeah, I guess capital L, since lowercase probably already does outnumber GOP. ” on 2012-10-29
• mmsalmon estimated 5% and said “very unlikely” on 2012-10-30
• Pablo estimated 5% on 2012-10-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-10-31
• Ken estimated 2% on 2012-11-12
• simplicio estimated 2% on 2013-01-23
• Tuxedage estimated 13% on 2013-01-24
• najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
• Michael Dickens estimated 15% on 2013-06-16
• rebellionkid estimated 10% on 2014-06-12
• EloiseRosen estimated 1% on 2015-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-29.