In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-10-30
• NathanMcKnight said “Basically, Romney will be “Nadered” by Johnson.” on 2012-10-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2012-10-30
• RandomThinker estimated 41% on 2012-10-31
• Turtleread estimated 10% and said “A very slim chance in New Mexico where Gary Johnson was a very popular Governor.” on 2012-11-05
• NathanMcKnight said “Ohio has both a very strong Libertarian movement, and a very slim margin by which Obama is ahead. 538 even has Fla as O+ by a tiny margin right now, so if Gary Johnson pulls a few tenths of a point, he could tilt the election. ” on 2012-11-06
• Turtleread estimated 17% and said “Revised figure. Taking into account new information about Ohio. As for FL, God only knows in the “hanging chad state.”” on 2012-11-06
• ohAitch estimated 15% on 2012-11-10
• andrevan estimated 0% on 2012-11-24
• RandomThinker said ““There’s no state where the margin between Romney and Obama could have been erased by a switch of third party votes. Florida comes close, but the margin is about 15,000 votes greater than the total vote for all third parties.”” on 2012-11-27
• RandomThinker said “http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/27/romney_at_47_percent.html ” on 2012-11-27
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-27.