John Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-30.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-11-06
• RandomThinker said “Just a 2 person race between the 2. Withdrawn if neither is appointed after Hillary or if Hillary stays until end date.” on 2012-11-06
• RandomThinker said “Politico says they’re top 2 candidates, Susan Rice favored. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81199_Page3.html” on 2012-11-06
• NathanMcKnight estimated 40% on 2012-11-06
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “John Kerry is more like to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice” on 2012-11-08
• RandomThinker said “@jayson this type of prediction is also implicitly a conditional. That one of Kerry or Rice will become SecState. If neither does, it doesn’t make sense to call this True. It should be withdrawn, unless we add a 3rd state beyond T and F.” on 2012-11-13
• Jayson Virissimo said “Yeah, I see your point. In any case, we need a better venue to hash this out than PB comments.” on 2012-11-14
• RandomThinker said “Kerry nominated. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/22/us/politics/kerry-is-pick-for-secretary-of-state-official-says.html?hp” on 2012-12-22
• RandomThinker said “Kerry is in. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/senate-confirms-sen-john-kerry-as-secretary-of-state/” on 2013-01-30
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-30.