The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again!
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
- RandomThinker estimated 28% on 2012-11-07
- RandomThinker said “A real possibility, although naming 2 specific people is really hard.” on 2012-11-07
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2012-11-07
- RobertLumley estimated 1% and said “This is a wildly privileged hypothesis… Even if they both ran, (Hasn’t Hillary said she doesn’t want to?) the chance of them both winning their parties nominations would be pretty small.” on 2012-11-08
- RandomThinker said “@Robert that’s my prediction. It’s a lot more likely than you would think. But agree in general, it’s not that likely. ” on 2012-11-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-11-08
- chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2012-11-08
- ohAitch estimated 4% on 2012-11-10
- Ken estimated 1% on 2012-11-12
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% and said “The Bush brand isn’t what it used to be (even among Republicans).” on 2012-11-14
- HonoreDB estimated 3% on 2012-11-14
- Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-15
- Procrustes estimated 0% on 2012-11-16
- dhoe estimated 5% on 2012-11-18
- ygert estimated 1% on 2012-12-25
- RandomThinker said “Predictwise has Hillary at 26% to win outright and Jeb @ 7%. I thought I was being a bit loose, but looks like I was too cautious.http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president” on 2013-08-23
- RandomThinker said “Politico says Clinton big fave for dems, Bush 4 way tie for repub nom http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=81B6AC31-7E4F-474F-AE16-FBB8002AD3CA” on 2013-11-06
- adbge estimated 6% on 2013-11-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2013-11-17
- RandomThinker said “Bush supposed to be frontrunner now among big shots. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/03/30/republicans_see_jeb_bush_as_the_great_gop_hope_for_2016.html Predictwise has Clinton+Bush at about 50%.” on 2014-03-31
- rebellionkid estimated 2% on 2014-06-12
- RandomThinker said “Jeb is in. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/12/16/bush-republicans-ted-cruz-rand-paul-mitt-romney/20476811/We know Hillary is in. Anyone else want to bid on this one?” on 2014-12-16
- RandomThinker said “NYT even gave them a name. Jebary. Or Heb.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/opinion/sunday/frank-bruni-clinton-bush-and-the-2016-presidential-election.html” on 2015-01-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 21% and said “Updating on Romney bowing out. ” on 2015-02-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 33% on 2015-06-19
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2015-06-26
- David estimated 35% on 2015-07-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-07-15
- JoshuaZ said “Note: Bet with ScreaminMime https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/260185/912247 I get $25 if it isn’t, I pay him $10 if it is. ” on 2015-07-15
- Faceh estimated 16% and said “I’m giving Hillary and ~80% shot (its her race to lose, something could come up to torpedo her as well) and ~20% for Jeb (subject to later performance), so I’d have to go with the conjunctive probability.” on 2015-07-15
- NathanMcKnight estimated 12% on 2015-08-23
- HonoreDB estimated 25% on 2015-08-24
- JoshuaZ estimated 39% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-08-24
- Andrew MacFie estimated 16% on 2015-09-02
- RandomThinker said “Bush is looking shaky. Even Hillary is looking a little shaky. So I can stick with my prediction from 3 yrs ago, still around 22%.” on 2015-09-29
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 30% and said “Hilary is very probable, Jeb! less so unfortunately.” on 2016-01-24
- jesselevine judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-21.