Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available).

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-04-23
• EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-04-23
• orthonormal said “Clarify: do you mean “he will start writing”or “he will complete writing”? I assume you mean the former, given your probabilities.” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ said “Yes, clarifying as start writing. ” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2016-07-15” and changed their prediction from “Eliezer Yudkowsky will write at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016” on 2015-04-29
• Andrew MacFie estimated 14% on 2015-06-20
• Ken estimated 20% on 2016-05-26
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-16.