By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2015-04-24
• btrettel estimated 90% on 2015-04-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 95% on 2015-04-24
• jesselevine estimated 95% on 2015-04-24
• JoshuaZ said “Context https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/33innk/what_is_the_next_big_thing_that_is_on_the_brink/cqnjd0a?context=3 bet with destructor_rph for $25 on this. ” on 2015-04-25
• Michael Dickens estimated 95% and said “JoshuaZ you have a knack for putting your money where your mouth is.” on 2015-04-30
• Chri estimated 97% on 2015-04-30
• splorridge estimated 90% on 2015-06-13
• PipFoweraker estimated 85% on 2016-01-07
• PipFoweraker estimated 95% and said “Mislicked prior guess :-/” on 2016-01-07
• ChristianKl estimated 95% on 2016-02-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-04-14
• elecnix estimated 100% on 2016-06-28
• elecnix estimated 99% and said “Tesla FSD beta is very good today, but not fully autonomous. By 2030, this will certainly be the case.” on 2022-12-10