Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 68% | 77% | 88% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 9587 | 13089 | 13672 | 14227 | 25943 | 6963 | 83481 |
Recent Predictions
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Serena Williams will win the 2009 French Open ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2009-06-07; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-06.
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Button will be the world champion ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vishnushashank on 2009-05-30; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2010-01-06; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight – Cavs will win ( 60% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27.
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The senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court ( 80% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-08-14; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-08-07.
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California's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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Lakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bébhinn on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-26; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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The sun will rise ( 100% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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Susan Boyle will win Britain's Got Talent 2009 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-05-31.
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The Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff ( 55% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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A Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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Button will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 20% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-20.
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Graph axes will have labels by this Friday ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-22; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-05-20.
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Kris Allen will not win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Adam Lambert will win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Predicting a Celtics victory tonight ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-05-18; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18.
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For Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EvF on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-06-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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@kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-08-16; judged right by Lina on 2009-08-16.
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An email will be sent to me ( 98% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-05-15; judged right by Wes on 2009-05-15.
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It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-11-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.
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glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.
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prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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the ASX S&P 200 will hit 4000 in the next month ( 80% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-06-11; judged right by Lina on 2009-06-11.
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Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo Stafforini on 2009-12-30.
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There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%. ( 90% confidence )
Created by marquisdetrade on 2009-04-30; known on 2009-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Created by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28; known on 2009-04-29; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28.
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Roger Federer will win the French Open. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Philip on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-06-07; judged right by Philip on 2009-06-07.
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Volcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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North Carolina will win the NCCA championship. ( 70% confidence )
Created by thomas on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-04-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged right by Wes on 2009-03-20.
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The test is wrong: I will still be lactose intolerant ( 78% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-02-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-02-26.
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I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.
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my visa will arive ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-03-01; judged wrong by Adam on 2009-03-01.
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Electrodrive will buy a label printer ( 100% confidence )
Created by th on 2009-02-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged right by Lina on 2009-04-20.
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Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
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the new overridable URL field will cause problems with caching (esp. static caching) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Gerrit on 2009-01-22; known on 2009-01-26; judged wrong by Gerrit on 2009-01-30.
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Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-04; known on 2008-12-04; judged right by Matt on 2008-12-04.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-01-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-01-17.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-02-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-02-01.
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Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-25; known on 2008-12-02; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-12-02.