Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 51% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 10406 | 14273 | 14752 | 15474 | 28130 | 7490 | 90525 |
Recent Predictions
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The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Robbie Rotten's plans will once again be thwarted ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-31; known on 2008-08-02; judged right on 2008-08-02.
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Mailer logging will take < 4 hours ( 80% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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this will be the most important prediction EVER ( 100% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-07-31; judged right on 2008-08-16.
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not being able to comment on your own prediction is silly ( 90% confidence; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-02-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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Against what I've always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-28; known on 2008-07-27; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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GD's clan does not include Mercedes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-26; known on 2008-08-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-08-28.
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Fallshaw (Jo) will win the Woolworths Tug job – Jo' prediction, she's really sure. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-25; known on 2008-10-25; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-09-23.
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same HIV = VZV ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-24; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-15.
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14749874 = cystic meningioma ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-24; known on 2008-09-16; judged right on 2008-08-07.
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My quote for Urban was too low ( 60% confidence )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-07-23; known on 2008-07-24; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Ferret will not fail until friday ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-07-23; known on 2008-07-25; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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Over the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing) ( 92% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-07-22; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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That falafel I had for lunch will come back to say hello ( 90% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-22; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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Within 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-24; judged right by Andy on 2008-08-26.
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PBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-01-22; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
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my bike will be ready to be picked up on time ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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toenail will fall of by midnight ( 70% confidence )
Created by Natalie on 2008-07-20; known on 2008-07-21; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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7381792 = meningioma ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-19; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-12.
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7370034 = met ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-19; known on 2008-08-16; judged right on 2008-08-07.
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Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-18; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected ( 55% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-18; known on 2009-04-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
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The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.
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Glenn will get bored of posting bogus predictions in 2 weeks ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-30; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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failed posting as a new name reverts to session stored name will be fixed by end of friday ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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i was born ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 1983-11-03; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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we will finish our end of austhink (sans non-bogus gateways) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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matt will come into work tomorrow wearing, yet again, one of those sleavless jacket things ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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this prediction will be 'judged' as wrong ( 50% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 1958-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Electrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
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Authorize.Net will be the first gateway to return my enquiry with any useful information ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-21; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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this prediction is wrong ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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we will have a judged 100% prediction by the end of today ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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the 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2018-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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typing 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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ambiguous (and proably contradictorily worded) predictions will have some means of 'in app' resolution ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-16.
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interpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-08-06; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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when I write jan 1st 2010 it stores as 1st January 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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I will be called in for an angiogram between 8pm and 8 am in the next 3 nights ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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I will be called to go into hospital between midnight today and 6am tomorrow. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-17; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.
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I will be able to use Facebook for some mild professional benefit within the next 6 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-16; judged right by Andy on 2009-10-19.
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Between 20 and 40% of friend requests will be from people that I don't really want as friends (but I awkwardly accept anyway) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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After releuctantly joining Facebook, I will end up with over 25 friend requests within the first week. Unsolicited. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.
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My account details from HSBC will arrive before the end of the week ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-19; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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Generation Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-08-30; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-27.
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I'll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth's account changes without going to the branch ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-21; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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first test paypal payment through austhink refactor will fail with an mildly new error message ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.