Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.