Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.