Ukraine will default on its debt

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2015-07-02
• David estimated 50% on 2015-07-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Ukraine Debt Rating Now Super-Duper Junkhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/04/10/ukraine-debt-rating-now-super-duper-junk/” on 2015-07-04
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Ukraine Debt Ratio Breaches Eurobond Terms With Russia. Terms set a limit on Kiev’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 60%http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-debt-ratio-breaches-eurobond-terms-with-russia-1425330261” on 2015-07-04
• Afforess estimated 33% and said “Plausible, but unlikely.” on 2015-07-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-07-05
• kuudes said “Raahul_Kumar: You know you can make notes without inserting an estimate? Repeating predictions is sometimes chaff.” on 2015-07-05
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Ukraine will miss a bond coupon payment in July, setting off a default on about $19 billion of debt, as a standoff with creditors shows no sign of abating, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. https://tinyurl.com/nv8ufwm” on 2015-07-11
• Raahul_Kumar said “Only 13 days left to default. I’m going to update this prediction daily now.” on 2015-07-11
• Raahul_Kumar said “Ukraine has extended hastily assembled talks with creditors amid predictions that the country could default as early as Friday if an agreement is not reached. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d63385c4-2ba3-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.html” on 2015-07-20
• Raahul_Kumar said “Fitch, S&P see Ukraine debt deal tantamount to defaulthttps://tinyurl.com/o6sejug” on 2015-09-19
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-09-19.
• kuudes said “not yet known: http://www.ifre.com/isda-dc-to-discuss-ukraine-credit-event/21217186.fullarticle” on 2015-09-22
• kuudes   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-09-22.
• kuudes said “http://dc.isda.org/cds/republic-of-ukraine/ ongoing to at least Wednesday 2015-09-23.” on 2015-09-22
• kuudes said “https://tinyurl.com/nnnlxon “A Potential Repudiation/Moratorium is not a Credit Event, and so credit default swap contracts will not be settled as a result of this resolution.”” on 2015-09-25
• kuudes said “http://dc.isda.org/documents/2015/10/emea-dc-decision-05102015.pdf Now a Repudiation/Moratorium credit event has been judged to have happened.” on 2015-10-06
• kuudes   judged this prediction right on 2015-10-06.
• Raahul_Kumar said ““By announcing a moratorium on returning this sovereign debt, the Ukrainian side has, you could say, in fact admitted default,” said Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov. ” on 2015-12-20
• Raahul_Kumar said “^https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-debt-and-eu-sanctions-anger-russia-1.2471763” on 2015-12-20