“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/321” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 65% on 2019-01-13