The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-10-11
• JoshuaZ said “See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MAJORANA and http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151006123953.htm” on 2015-10-11
• JoshuaZ said “Note that if this happens this will be an extension of the Standard Model but a fairly conservative one. ” on 2015-10-11
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “This is just a proof of concept, it isn’t supposed to find neutrinoless beta decay. Comment restricted only to the Demonstrator.” on 2015-10-12
• Josh Holland estimated 40% on 2015-10-13
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/157971” on 2015-10-26
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.