“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “this has been an active story since 2003, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_KC-767 so needs a long due date” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=696372&z=1281597637778 at 60.1%” on 2010-08-12
• gwern said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1625 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1624” on 2010-08-12
• Afforess said “The contract was awarded in 2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022404699.html” on 2015-09-12
• Afforess   judged this prediction right on 2015-09-12.