“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-08-18
• gwern said “http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.06/saleskelly_pr.html” on 2010-08-18
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 98% and said “Fortunately seems to hold up.” on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 97% on 2019-01-11
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2020-05-27
• Baeboo   judged this prediction right on 2021-01-01.