“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-25
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1e7g?c=1” on 2010-08-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% and said “measuring this is going to be hard” on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-10