“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 85% on 2010-08-25
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1e7g?c=1” on 2010-08-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 45% and said “Unclear resolution criteria, and a bit early, but the general trend seems right: both Augur and PredictIt seem to be making progress.” on 2019-01-10
• elephantower said “seems right to me ” on 2019-12-31
• gwern said “I’m not sure about this one. PredictIt doesn’t seem cited any more than I remember Intrade being. Intrade was regularly quoted in newspapers and political pundit blogosphere.” on 2020-01-01
• Andrew MacFie said “On the other hand, at least PredictIt is legal.” on 2020-02-26