North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt.

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

• Temeraire estimated 93% on 2016-02-13
• Temeraire said “http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/25/predictions-for-2016/” on 2016-02-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 96% on 2016-02-13
• equivrel estimated 90% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 96% on 2016-02-14
• hedges estimated 95% on 2016-02-15
• davidmanheim estimated 95% on 2016-02-16
• danpop estimated 90% on 2016-02-16
• davidmanheim said “Ummm… http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176968” on 2016-02-17
• Pfft estimated 97% on 2016-02-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 52% on 2016-03-11
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 99% on 2016-03-23
• Temeraire estimated 100% on 2016-11-30
• two2thehead estimated 95% on 2016-12-04
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.