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Hillary wins South Carolina

Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • predictit estimated 24% on 2016-08-11
  • predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too” on 2016-08-11
  • elephantower estimated 5% and said “The paths to D victory rely on ultra-high black turnout and whites fracturing: Democrats are unlikely to invest in GOTV and it’s very likely recalcitrant Rs will come around (chivvied by the state party apparatus if need be)” on 2016-08-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-08-12
  • BigRaims estimated 25% on 2016-08-16
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 20% on 2016-08-21
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.