'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-10-24
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2020-2029.htm#skylon” on 2010-10-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 5% on 2018-02-22
• Athrithalix said “I saw the Skylon link and thought this was a Skylon specific prediction. Other reusable SSTO’s are much more likely.” on 2018-03-16
• Athrithalix estimated 65% on 2018-03-16
• pranomostro estimated 40% and said “Slightly too early, but SpaceX seems to be making good progress on this.” on 2019-01-09
• stepan estimated 0% on 2021-12-29
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-stage-to-orbit still says it hasn’t been done and Skylon/Starship haven’t yet proven out. so marking wrong.” on 2022-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2022-01-01.