PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

  • solipsist estimated 13% on 2014-03-06
  • slackson estimated 5% on 2014-03-07
  • gwern estimated 15% on 2014-03-08
  • solipsist changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty” on 2014-03-08
  • solipsist estimated 65% and said “Mechanism in 102 confirms, plus I’m more confident in my HPMOR comparative advantage.” on 2014-07-28
  • solipsist   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.