World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet

Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-05-17
• gwern said “‘predict that the 2 hour mark will be broken in 2028’ http://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2011/04/11/the-fastest-possible-marathon/” on 2011-05-17
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-07
• Baeboo estimated 65% on 2019-01-08