From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP.
- bobpage estimated 70% on 2011-07-15
- gwern estimated 60% on 2011-07-17
- bobpage said “Support officially ends on April 8 2014: http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/?LN=en-gb&C2=1173 and Microsoft is unlikely to waver, unless there’s some serious security hole that a worm is exploiting.” on 2011-09-23
- bobpage said “http://news.msn.com/science-technology/microsoft-rescues-xp-users-with-emergency-browser-fix” on 2014-05-01
- bobpage judged this prediction wrong on 2014-05-01.
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