Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-12-31
• gwern said “this is the end-price on 31 december 2012, not a moving average or high/low thing.” on 2011-12-31
• gwern said “bitcoin seems too long-term volatile to wind up, after another entire year (it’s only been seriously traded around a year!), in such a moderate band.” on 2011-12-31
• Larklight estimated 10% on 2012-01-03
• holycow81 estimated 40% on 2012-12-19
• Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2012-12-28
• gwern said “current mtgox: $13.4. well outside the $5-10 range” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.