Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “study in question, quotes from abstract: http://www.frontiersin.org/human_neuroscience/abstract/20296 Problem is the fulltext is unavailable?” on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “context: Redditor claiming study did not show lack of IQ gain and the reasoning stuff must be about something else: http://www.reddit.com/r/BrainTraining/comments/ozwmw/another_failure_to_replicate_iq_increases_from_dnb/c3ljtou” on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “http://www.psy.lmu.de/exp/people/former/strobach/publications/salminenetal2011abs.pdf is not fulltext, but strongly indicates they did not do any IQ tests ” on 2012-02-05
• gwern said “:(:(:( I’m sad not just because it was 80%, but because that absence makes the study almost useless for my DNB FAQ” on 2012-02-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-05.
• gwern said “no, I was right! the fulltext used RAPM! http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3368385/” on 2012-07-25
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-07-25.