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Night 35: pill was Vitamin D

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2012-02-06
  • gwern estimated 35% and said “whups, I actually thought it was placebo” on 2012-02-06
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-06.