A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not.

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

  • anonym estimated 85% on 2009-10-17
  • anonym changed their prediction from “For predictions that one has personal control over, a significant number of people will comment in this prediction that they have started modifying their initial predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for the anticipation of putting extra effo” on 2009-10-17
  • anonym changed their prediction from “A significant number of people will comment here that they have started modifying initial predictions (over which they have control) of greater than 50% upwards to account for the anticipation of putting extra effort into because it was judged more likely” on 2009-10-17
  • anonym estimated 85% on 2009-10-17
  • anonym  judged this prediction wrong on 2010-01-01.

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