March 2013 hard drive prices: 24-30 GB/$

Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-03-28.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2012-08-23
• gwern said “judged by top entry in http://forre.st/storage#sata” on 2012-08-23
• gwern said “current August 2012 price: 20GB/$” on 2012-08-23
• gwern said “background: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law#kryders-law” on 2012-08-23
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-08-23
• gwern changed their prediction from “March 2013 hard drive prices: 27-33 GB/$” on 2012-08-23
• gwern said “prediction edit: see comment in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/7911” on 2012-08-23
• Tuxedage estimated 65% on 2013-01-15
• Malgidus estimated 90% and said “Hard drives on sale fall just short of this range. (23.2GB/$), but CAD, so.” on 2013-03-27
• gwern said “top rating on forre.st is 22.389731 GB/$. So a little short. I wonder why I was wrong and what caused this additional stagnation in prices…? I took the flooding into account.” on 2013-03-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-03-28.