HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years

Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-16.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-11-16
• gwern said “http://www.fanfiction.net/s/6496709/1/Unexpected_Circumstances current 24163 reviews vs MoR current 18911; see http://lesswrong.com/lw/7sc/siai_vs_fhi_achievements_20082010/596g in 1 year: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/10022” on 2012-11-16
• gwern estimated 50% and said “more pessimistic after modeling: http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#the-review-race-unexpected-circumstances-versus-mor” on 2012-11-17
• TheOriginalSoni estimated 90% on 2013-07-25
• qznc estimated 90% and said “Very close now. 24,915 : 24,178” on 2014-07-14
• gwern said “UC: 24,989; MoR: 24,908; very close, just 80 reviews, but looks like the shift to hpmor.com torpedoed the trend I was counting on. oh well.” on 2014-11-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-11-16.