LSD microdosing experiment: pair 4: placebo then active?

Created by gwern on 2012-11-19; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-19.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-11-19
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-19.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-11-19” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16