Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2012-11-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 44% on 2012-11-20
• Qiaochu estimated 50% on 2012-11-26
• gwern said “http://news.discovery.com/space/alien-life-exoplanets/mars-methane-mystery-curiosit-y-results-121102.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Mars#Methane no methane” on 2013-01-26
• gwern said “http://news.discovery.com/space/alien-life-exoplanets/mars-methane-mystery-curiosit-y-results-121102.htm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Mars#Methane no methane” on 2013-01-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.