Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.

NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2012-11-20
JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-11-20
Sarokrae estimated 2% on 2012-11-21
RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-11-21
dhoe estimated 10% on 2012-11-23
raducu427 estimated 80% and said “life contamination either way” on 2012-11-24
kilobug estimated 5% and said “I would say 20% chance there are live microorganisms in Martian soil, and 25% chance Curiosity find them if they exist, so 5%. ” on 2012-11-25
Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-26
BundleGerbe estimated 7% on 2012-11-27
Meowth estimated 8% on 2012-11-29
Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2012-11-29
ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2012-11-29
RusAnon estimated 2% on 2012-11-30
Samm estimated 1% and said “It would probably be contamination if it did happen” on 2012-12-02
Samm judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.
dhoe judged this prediction unknown on 2013-01-02.
gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.
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Samm judged this prediction unknown on 2013-04-26.
Samm judged this prediction wrong on 2013-04-26.
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