Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana

Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.

• kimmjaynedowling estimated 76% on 2010-02-10
• gwern estimated 40% and said “What to judge on? 4 movies coming: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miley_Cyrus#2010_onwards Doesn’t seem like fading to me.” on 2010-07-29
• kimmjaynedowling changed the deadline from “on 2010-01-01” on 2010-08-08
• kallman estimated 30% and said “She looked to be poisoning her career for a while but she’s not vanishing either. Good thing? Eh.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “WP says she’s busy recording her fourth album and is scheduled for a comedy movie. doesn’t sound very ‘faded’ to me; marking wrong” on 2012-02-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-10.