PredictionBook is now read-only (

Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3

Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

  • sharidanbowman estimated 85% on 2010-02-10
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “prediction implicitly says: ghostbusters III will be released by X date and murray will die in it. the second clause seems likely, but not the first…on 2010-07-31
  • Jennifer estimated 32% and said “P(death|movie)=0.93 but also maybe P(movie)=0.35…on 2010-09-29
  • kallman estimated 25% and said “Bill murray’s death, or his character’s? Time needs to be bumped up though, IMDB thinks it’s not out til 2012 sometime.on 2010-12-30
  • fergus estimated 70% on 2011-09-13
  • muflax said “doesn’t seem to come out any time soon:; I suggest delaying the prediction another year or soon 2011-12-30
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “fine, but I’m shifting my prediction because i was taking release time into account as well.on 2011-12-30
  • sharidanbowman changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-30on 2011-12-30
  • gwern said “still no movie. time to let this prediction die and mark it wrongon 2012-12-31
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.