Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland.

Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.

• sharidanbowman estimated 35% on 2010-02-10
• cointelligence estimated 60% and said “they didn’t bury the monkey” on 2010-02-28
• Danni estimated 20% on 2010-03-17
• gwern estimated 98% and said “conspiracy=Jacksons doing their damndest to prevent prosecution of doctor, because there would be autopsy, and MJ had a ‘unique’ medical history.” on 2010-07-29
• Pavitra estimated 1% on 2010-08-03
• Jennifer estimated 0% and said “P(alive)=0.11 but detected before deadline? P(revealed before deadline|alive)=0.12 but hiding specifically at Neverland? Too many details!” on 2010-09-29
• kallman estimated 0% and said “Too crazy. Him and elvis haning out on mars. Woo.” on 2010-11-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-01-01
• Larks estimated 0% and said “Obveously, I mean <0.5%” on 2011-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-01-21
• JoshuaZ said “Gwern, did you mean 98% here and not 98% against? ” on 2011-07-07
• gwern estimated 2% and said “yes” on 2011-07-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Updating to just zero outright. Really tiny. ” on 2011-11-17
• Grognor estimated 0% on 2011-12-06
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-26
• chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2012-06-02
• davidiach estimated 0% on 2012-06-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-06-11
• Michael Stevens estimated 1% on 2012-06-11
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-24.