GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling

Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-11-26
• gwern said “\When will the last magnetic platter hard drive be manufactured? 2016. I plotted the growth in capacity of magnetic platter hard drives and flash drives back in 2006 or so, and saw that flash would overtake magnetic media in 2016" Hertling” on 2012-11-26
• gwern said “http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2012/06/how-to-predict-the-future.html” on 2012-11-26
• gwern said “I disagree because the Thailand floods seem to’ve permanently set back Kryder’s law and hence Flash’s convergence: http://www.gwern.net/Slowing%20Moore%27s%20Law#kryders-law” on 2012-11-26
• gwern said “ will judge using http://forre.st/storage if available; current prices: 2.5 vs 20” on 2012-11-26
• RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “Sounds sensationalistic.” on 2012-11-27
• ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2012-11-29
• Mathir25 estimated 25% on 2012-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• gwern said “forrest is broken, but can judge by Samsung 1tb SSD which is one of the best, but still easily 3x a HDD. marking wrong.” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.