American president obama will screw up politically

Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• melmel estimated 90% on 2010-02-10
• Olyscott estimated 0% and said “He will get a second term” on 2010-02-10
• I_am_not_real. said “It all depends on your definition of “screw up”.” on 2010-02-11
• gwern said “Stupidly vague. As punishment I’m marking it wrong.” on 2010-07-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-07-29.