Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil

Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• tsathoggua estimated 30% on 2012-12-01
• NathanMcKnight estimated 1% and said “I’m not sure it’s equipped with a photomicrograph, so I think this prediction is probably limited to reasonably macroscopic organisms. Hence my low %.” on 2012-12-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2013-01-01
• Tuxedage estimated 2% on 2013-01-01
• ShIxtan estimated 3% on 2013-04-30
• kiba estimated 0% and said “As far as I know, curiosity isn’t equiped with equipments for detecting life.” on 2013-05-15
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.